11.4.12
It's all over (almost)
by Jon Worley

If you happen to be a sane person, then you're ready for this election to be over. The campaign has been mean, nasty, dispiriting--and close. I'll throw out my odds at the end. But here's how you can get a (relatively) good election night's sleep and still know who won.

You can go to bed knowing Obama has won if:

1. Obama wins Florida.
2. Obama wins Ohio and Virginia

You can go to bed knowing Romney won if:

1. Romney wins Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

There are other scenarios, but those involve waiting up until the wee hours. For example, Obama can win if Romney takes Ohio, Virginia and Florida, but you'll have to wait for results from Colorado and Nevada, which might be well into the morning.

As for the House and Senate, I don't even think people are taking bets any more. Democrats will win a few more seats, but (spoiler alert!) Paul Ryan will end up Speaker in January. The Democrats will retain their hold on the Senate by virtue of idiot-driven wins in Missouri and Indiana and by holding on to open seats in states like N.M. (a seat likely to be won by an old college friend of mine, a prospect which seems stranger by the day).

On to the odds! They're the most fun, anyway.

Obama wins: 1-5
Romney's window is so tight subatomic particles would have a hard time fitting through. He's got to run the table with just about all of the toss-up states, and polling has been rolling slightly against him since Hurricane Sandy pointed out to many people exactly why they need a government that does something other than give money to businesses and fund the military. Like I said, though, if Romney sneaks a win in Pennsylvania then he's going to have a good night. I just don't think that's going to happen.

Over/Under on when the election will be called: Midnight EST
I think Obama wins Ohio, and I think he picks up Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan with relative ease. If he were to win Florida, I think that call would come after midnight, but once Ohio is in the bag then the final call is just a matter of polls closing and semi-tight races getting called. If Romney wins Ohio, my wife might not be home from work until sometime on Thursday.

There are no other national odds worth mentioning. I will say that at least one state will legalize gay marriage at the polls, and it is possible that all four proposals on state ballots might pass. Actually, I think that is the most likely result, but only in a 25-20-19-18-18 sorta way.

Other fun idea:

Best drinking game if you want to pass out early:
Take a drink whenever anyone says "Ohio."

Best drinking game, period:
Get a bottle of beer from each state and D.C. (this is toughie, considering that D.C.'s breweries don't distribute outside of the district) and give all your guests a splash whenever that state is called. Bonus cred if you actually find an operating North Dakota brewery. And no, buying a Bud in Fargo doesn't count.

Best background music while the pundits ramble: You can get stoned and listen to Zappa or Beefheart, but the thought of ruining Trout Mask Replica by forever associating it with a Romney win is just frightening, even if unlikely. I'd go with Fugazi, whose reformed straight-edge hardcore is pretty much the ticket for these days of rage. And, of course, the band was from D.C. Extra bonus: If things go way, way into the morning, simply put "Waiting Room" on an endless loop. It's astoundingly appropriate, and it's such a great song that you won't burn out until you've heard it fifty times in a row (or more).

Best thing to do at two in the morning: Go to sleep. The election will be decided one way or another, and once you've voted there's not much you can do.


Jon Worley has voted in every election possible since he turned 18.


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