12.28.08
2009: The worst of times
by Jon Worley

Making predictions for the coming year is something like getting blown in the Oval Office. It may feel good at the time, but payback is a bitch.

Nonetheless, it feels good enough that thousands of folks do it every year. I simply made jokes last December, but most of those predictions came true (e.g., Someone will win the Stanley Cup). I just can't resist the temptation, so here goes.

1. Pundits on all sides will turn on Prez Obama, and his ratings will continue to rise.
This is perhaps the easiest prediction to make, and I'm pretty confident about it. Folks like me are supposed to poke and prod (and occasionally scald) those in power, and most people don't pay any attention. We're already in depression territory (definitions vary, but consecutive annual drops in GDP are kinda boilerplate for your "run-of-the-mill" depression), and no one blames Obama for that. His plans will cost a lot of money and not target all the areas people think ought to be targeted, but the public will stick with him, I think. I mean, who else will lead us? Mitch McConnell? I don't think so.

2. The Yankees won't make the playoffs--again.
The Yankees spent an ungodly amount of money to buy the best arms and bats available. On paper, the 2009 Yanks ought to win at least 120 games. But "superteams" don't always come together. If there's no cohesion in the dugout, the Yankees will be lucky to win 90 games, which probably won't get them to the playoffs. Note that I'm not making any predictions about the Royals, despite their rise into mediocrity last season.

3. Newspapers will continue to print copies.
Okay, this is another "duh." But I don't see any major papers folding up shop, and any newspapers that go away will likely be located in two (or more) newspaper towns. The truth is that newspapers have a lot of fat. This "fat" has led to some of the most important stories of the last 30 years, but enterprising newspapers have raked plenty of muck with much smaller staffs than they have right now. They will continue to do so. The public doesn't realize that journalism is a "calling" (not unlike the priesthood), and those who feel deeply about journalism won't go easily into that good night.

4. More "micro" breweries will head into "macro" territory.
Right now, there are three "micro" brewers with a nationwide presence: Sierra Nevada, Boston Brewing (Sam Adams) and Anchor. Rogue sells a lot less beer but is also available throughout most of the country. Look for regional powerhouses like New Belgium (Fat Tire), Avery, Bell's, Dogfish Head and Stone to increase their territories. A recession may be bad for business, but it's great for beer sales--even the more pricey craft beers.

5. Al Franken will be a senator.
End-times scholars have repeatedly stresssed that the swearing in of Franken would signify the opening of the sixth seal, but he seems to have the edge in the recount. Washington Post gossip columnists are bummed by this, because Norm Coleman and his wife are significantly hotter than Franken and his wife, and it is certainly true that D.C. needs all the pretty people it can get. I mean, if Jessica Cutler qualifies as a hottie, we need better action around here. Nonetheless, barring some sort of pre-apocalyptic event in Minnesota, I think this is close to a done deal.

6. 2009 is going to suck.
Again, no big surprise here. But if you think the bad economic times won't hit you, you're wrong. No jobs are safe, unless you work for Uncle Sam. The housing market is a long ways from hitting bottom. On the plus side, oil prices shouldn't go up that much, so you shouldn't have to pay people to buy your Hummer. Of course, you still have to drive the damned thing.

So there you are, six wimpy predictions. Sure hope the intern was cute, 'cause these are going to look really ugly in a few months.


Jon Worley's budget for bourbon is $15 per 1.75L bottle.


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