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11.2.08 E-Day 2008: Final book by Jon Worley At long last, it's post time. In a couple days, the betting windows will be closed and it will be time to pay off your markers. Time may be short, but there are plenty of duffers to fleece before 7 p.m. on Tuesday. My first bit of advice is to give whatever odds are necessary to separate McCain supporters from their dough. A lot of these folks cashed out their hedge funds for pennies on the dollar, and they're looking for a quick score. Give 'em odds of 100-1 (or higher) for a McCain victory and take as much action as possible. Don't lay off these bets, either. If McCain somehow manages to win, this country will be thrown into a maelstrom that makes the current financial crisis look like a pleasant spring shower. Your bankruptcy won't matter a whit. However, I don't think there's going to be much action on the question of the winner. The derivatives are much more interesting. Take Electoral College counts. The current over/under for Obama is 350, and I still think that's reasonable. But if you want to take a few chances, push it up toward 400. The early voting numbers are astounding (more on this later), and all exit polling shows approximately 60-40 split toward Obama among folks who have already voted. Back in 2004, Kerry won early voting by 5 points. If Obama's 20-point edge holds, there could be some really weird results Tuesday night. State-by-state results are also fun, but even the pros can't see their way to call races such as Missouri, Indiana or even Georgia. If you really want to get esoteric, go for percentages in a given state. WARNING! Do not attempt this unless you've spent hours scouring the data on a particular state. It's too easy to screw things up. One example that I'll share: I put the over/under on Obama's margin of victory in North Carolina at 5 percent. I expect to get a lot of action on this, but I'm quite confident. Here's why:
That last fact is a lot more important than some folks may realize. For the last 30 years or so, the GOP election organization has far outstripped that of Democrats. Kerry did better in 2004, but Obama's campaign is, quite simply, better run than just about any other in our nation's history. This organizational advantage ought to be worth two or three points in the battleground states. Indeed, just about everything seems to be tipping Obama's way as the election approaches. Pennsylvania is the only state that isn't gravitating toward him, though it hasn't moved back toward McCain, either. The simple math is that McCain must win Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida in order to get to 270. He trails in most of those states, and Nevada and Colorado are effectively out of reach, so he'll have to win Pennsylvania to make up those votes. Ain't gonna happen. Okay, so that's the president. Things get much trickier in Congress. The over/under for Democratic pickups in the Senate is six. Three are done deals: Virginia, New Mexico and Colorado. New Hampshire and North Carolina are very close to finished. And there are tight races in Oregon, Alaska, Minnesota, Kentucky, Georgia and Mississippi. If just one of those breaks for the (D), you get six. I'd say that's safe. If you get some good odds for seven or eight (2-1 or 3-1, say), take 'em . As for betting on any individual race, look at the polls and give the (D) two points. Democratic turnout is already huge, and I don't think the Republicans will make up much on Election Day. The House's over/under has been stuck at 25 for a few months. I'd move it a bit higher if that's what it takes to get some action, but don't go past 30. These races are notoriously weird, and unless you know the lay of the land, don't take money on any individual race. Polls within individual congressional districts are notoriously inaccurate. No matter the enticements, I'd stay away from these. There are a few scattered governors races, but most of them aren't interesting. Missouri, North Carolina and Washington are the only close races, and Missouri doesn't seem that tight. NC and WA won't be decided until the early hours of the morning...unless Obama has coattails of gold. If NC gets called early for the (D), it's going to be a long night for the GOP. Final notes time. If your election night party includes a pool for the hour when the election will be called, this is easy: Put your marker on 11:01. That's when all polls other than Alaska will be closed, and it's unlikely the projections will give Obama 270 before then. A massive Democratic landslide might close the race down at 10:01, but the networks are understandably twitchy about calling the whole enchilada while a lot of folks are still heading to the polls. As for the moment that the election will have been decided, that's just as easy. Watch your televisions at 8:01. If Pennsylvania and Virginia have been called for Obama, you can turn off the TV and go to bed. At the latest, VA and PA will be called by 9:01. And by then, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina and lots of other states will have joined the Obama train. I could be wrong. The last 159 national polls could be wrong. Newton might have been wrong about gravity. It is true that McCain could pull out a win. I can't see any rational way to predict this, but predictions have a way of not working out. On the other hand, Republicans should be careful what they wish for. Do they really want John McCain and Sarah Palin defining their party as it tries to rebuild for the future? Ah, but that's electioneering. This column is all about skimming money from the marks. And the pickings are fat indeed this year.
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