In the past month, I've been seeing a lot of action on the 2008 presidential race. Before this year, I've held to a strict policy of refusing all bets before the first snows hit New Hampshire--the winter before the primary, that is.

But this year, all the biggies were tromping around in the slush the winter before the winter before, and I guess I have to adjust with the times. And so, this is where things stand a couple weeks before the summer solstice--the year before.

Party bets:
These are kinda like betting red and black at roulette, but what the hey. If people want to lose their money, they can.

A Democrat wins the White House: 1-5.
The reasons for this spread are simple. None of the Republican candidates are exciting anyone other than Republicans, and most of the GOP faithful aren't real happy with their boys, either. As long as we're still in Iraq in November 2008 (I'm giving odds of 1 to 1 million--that is, you put up a million and I'll give you a buck--on that proposition), I just don't see a Republican sitting in the Oval Office on January 21, 2009.

Republicans take back the House: 9-4.
These are tortured odds, but even with lots of GOP retirements, the Dems have more vulnerable seats. And people seem to like to vote one way for president and another for Congress. Still, the opposite proposition (Dems hold the house) seems slightly more likely.

Republicans take back the Senate: 5-1.
Twenty-two GOP seats are up for election versus 11 Dem seats. This is easy math. The Dems have more money already, and they're defending fewer seats. Don't be surprised if nominally "southern" GOP seats in North Carolina and (especially) Virginia flip in 2008. And I surely wouldn't want to be a Republican out west. The days of Rocky Mountain highs for the GOP evaporated in 2006 and aren't coming back any time soon.

Prez bets:
The odds are constantly in flux, but what the hell. The first odds listed are for the nomination, and the second are for the nomination and general election quinela. While some candidates would likely have a better shot at the general election than the nomination, due to the extreme variability of the general election based on the opponent, general election odds (which include within them the nomination odds) are a longer shot, with one perhaps surprising exception.

Dems
Hillary Clinton: 2-1, 5-2
Hillary might well have a tougher time in the primaries than the general election. Some people simply refuse to understand her appeal to blue collar voters--but it runs deep and those are exactly the sort of independent voters who could put her over the top. If she rallies the unions behind her in the primaries, the next year could be a surprisingly easy cakewalk.

Barack Obama: 3-1, 3-1
He's a star, and he projects the image of someone that folks would like to see as president. Hell, I've read more pro-Obama pieces from supposedly conservative pundits than I have from the leftie side. If Obama can translate his fund-raising and stump appeal to real votes, he'd likely be an unstoppable force come November. I know there are those who think the race card will come into play, but I just don't see it. The folks who wouldn't vote for Obama because of his skin color wouldn't vote for him anyway. The same holds true for Clinton, by the way, but I gave her slightly longer odds in the general because she would be more vulnerable to a couple of the possible GOP nominees.

John Edwards: 10-1, 15-1
He's the only Dem talking about real issues, and I like that. He's raising decent money and he's doing okay in the polls. He's got a better shot than most people think, but he's still a long ways from front-runner status.

Bill Richardson: 20-1, 30-1
He's the best-known governor in the Dems race, he's got a fine resume and he's good on the stump. Problem is, no one knows who he is. I think he'd be a pretty good Prez, but he's got to convince more people than little ol' me.

The field: 60-1, 60-1
Dennis Kucinich? Good for a few laughs. I like his shtick, but that doesn't mean I'd vote for him. Again, anyway. And the other guys? Who are they? Joe Biden? Ahem. By the way--I include Al Gore in this list as well. He's a crappy campaigner, and he doesn't like raising money. He'd be a formidable candidate, I guess, but I think he's having a lot more fun hanging out with movie stars. I know which job I'd choose--in a heartbeat.

GOP-ers
Rudy Giuliani: 4-1, 20-1
You might think his big problem would be the Republican primaries. You'd be wrong. Rudy is far too NYC to win the presidency. Three wives? Take away my guns? Fuggetaboutit!

Fred Thompson: 4-1, 20-1
Thompson is starting late, but in the past he's proven himself to be an adept candidate. He just might sneak through and score the nomination by running as "the true conservative." Of course, if he does that, he'll get whacked in the general election. Sure, he'd try to sand some of the sharp edges off his primary positions--and his record in the Senate was fairly moderate--but this campaign is all about establishing yourself early. There won't be a chance to remake his image before the general election. Rudy knows this already: Nixon's "run to the right and then move to the center" blueprint is obsolete.

John McCain: 4-1, 120-1
People liked McCain back when he was supposedly a straight shooter. But then he remade himself into the consummate professional politician. That might work in the primaries, but his position on the war will doom him in the general election. He might win, um, I dunno, Alabama or something.

Mitt Romney: 6-1, 120-1
He's got a lot of money, but he seems to keep shooting himself in the face every day on the trail. Money means a lot to Republicans, but I don't think it will for Romney. Still, I respect his bank account too much to dismiss him entirely. As for the general election--his bizarro flip-flop show would be like Kerry on steroids. Yow!

The field: 12-1, 1,000,000-1
Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo and the rest of the "we don't believe in evolution" crowd are just too loony to get elected, though one of them just might sneak through the primary if something very weird happened. Like, I dunno, if Mitt Romney was caught videotaping John McCain porking Fred Thompson's wife. Of course, if that happened then Rudy would skate through. Tell you what: Send me your favorite conspiracy theories, and if they're funny enough I'll pass them along.

There you go. The book is officially open. Get your money down while you can.

Jon Worley once spent four hours in the Las Vegas airport. He blew 15 cents on the video slots.