11.3.04
Linings of silver and lead
by Jon Worley

The last major-party anti-war presidential candidate carried one state and lost in a landslide. John Kerry carried a number of states, and even a day later we can't say with certainty that he lost the electoral vote (though it is certain he lost the popular vote by about 3 percent). There are those who want to read this election as a vindication or even resounding endorsement of the Prez's policies. That would not be wise.

A number of commentators--including a striking number of conservatives--have expressed concern with the increasing isolation of the Prez. This contributed to his frighteningly awful performance in the first debate, but it also seems to have had a lot to do with his decision making as well. He's got to realize that about half of America doesn't agree with his agenda.

Some pundits last night talked about a sense of alienation that might develop among those who voted for Kerry. Speaking as an atheist who supports gay marriage, I don't feel alienated. I know my ideas aren't mainstream...I'm the only Libertarian Socialist I know. But that's America. I don't believe that all of the Prez's ideas are bad ones, and I don't believe that all of John Kerry's ideas were good ones. The people had a clear choice, they came out in large numbers and a little more than half voted for the Prez. Alright. We had a fair and open election. That's a good thing. I don't see how losing an election should make anyone feel alienated. Depressed, maybe. Alienated? Hardly.

And anyway, those who follow demographics know that my generation (Generation X, the baby busters, etc.), folks who are about 30-45 or so, is the most conservative generation this nation has seen in probably more than a century. Many of us came of political age in the Reagan years, and so you see guys like 39-year-old Patrick Ballantine, the Republican gubernatorial nominee here in North Carolina--who got spanked, by the way. But there are a lot more Patrick Ballantines than there are Barack Obamas.

Following us, though, are the children of the baby boomers. I know, I'm a child of baby boomers, but my parents were literally the first boomers, born nine months after V-J day. Those under 30 appear to be the most liberal generation in a century--at least on social issues--and there are a lot more of them than there are Gen Xers. Give the babies time, and they'll make their presence known even more assuredly.

And even without looking toward the future, last night was not a total wipeout for Democrats. Yes, all those southern Senate seats went Republican. I was surprised by the Florida result, and I had expected Bowles to eke out a win here. Oh well. It's more interesting to look at results within the states. Here in North Carolina, where Bush won by about 14 percent (much higher than expected, as he'd only been running 8-9 points up in polls), a Democrat was re-elected governor and Democrats took back the state house and increased their majority in the Senate.

What's even more interesting is the why. The state legislature was evenly divided 60-60 after the last election (a couple of Democrats defected before running for re-election, but caucused as Democrats during the 2003-2004 sessions), and a Democrat and a moderate Republican split the Speaker duties. The Republican party was outraged and targeted those few moderates in the primaries. Four moderates lost to conservative opponents in the primaries, and those conservative nominees then lost last night, giving the Democrats a 62-58 lead.

While dismaying on the political civility front, it is refreshing to see suburban voters in North Carolina (and all these targeted districts were in the suburbs) feeling comfortable voting for Democratic representation. In fact, while most of the people moving to North Carolina are nominally Republican, they tend to be fairly moderate in their politics and will cross party lines if they perceive a candidate to be too conservative.

The next 10 years or so will be a tough slog for those of us with a leftish point of view. We can take comfort in the fact that America has bounced back from far worse situations than she finds herself in these days. Two things typify Americans: The optimism that all obstacles, no matter how insurmountable, can be overcome, and the will to do the work necessary to put us back on the right track. To be sure, we repeat our mistakes a few times before we recognize them, but eventually America will do the right thing.

People of good will on all sides can take pride in yesterday's election, if not in the campaigns themselves. America has spoken. Now it's time to dig in and do the hard work.


Jon Worley would like to take this moment to kick-start the Greg Graffin 2004 presidential campaign.


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