04.16.00
Crashed
by Michael Maiello

They'll call it a correction, but today, the stock market crashed. That doesn't mean it won't wake up but when the Dow (where the industrials live) drops over 5% of its value in a day and when the Nasdaq (where the tech stocks live) drop over 30% of their value in a month, that's more than just a correction. It's a lot of people panicking. My guess is at they'll stop panicking soon. It's kind of like Macbeth, who said he waded so far into a river of blood that he couldn't stop killing people once he started. If Macbeth had stopped, he would have been killed even sooner. If he plunged into the muck, at least he had a chance.

That's where investors are now. They're all so tied up in this that if they all flee, they all lose. It's too late to get out now. The sellers have sold most people wanting to follow will give up a lot of money in the process. Then there are those nasty margins. Brokerages let you play with more money than you have. If you've got $5,000 they'll let you invest up to $10,000. But if your losses start eating into their portion of that they issue a "margin call" which means you've got to put money into the account in order to safeguard them from losses. If you don't, they take your best stocks and sell them for you, leaving you with a bunch of crud. That was a big cause of the market crash in the 20s and in the 80s. I haven't heard a lot of margin whining yet, but if things get any worse... well, this is how people get ruined.

I know, it's all rather dry stuff. I'm just starting to learn why it's important, though. I've always thought of stock money has paper wealth and as being fake. In a way, it is. In another way, it isn't. Sure, it's a bit fake to say a company is worth $1 billion because that's what all the stock combined trades for when the company's assets and sales don't add up to $1 billion at all. But that money which people pour into those companies is useful. It really is cash on hand. It's how new factories get built and how new perks get paid to CEOs. I don't believe in trickle down when it's good. I don't think that the rich pass on their winnings by creating jobs and paying people generously. People are just too selfish for that.

But bad trickle down does work. Don't believe that anyone will give up their big homes in the country just because the market has gone south. But do worry that they'll start canning people in the name of corporate efficiency ñ an attempt at cutting costs to up the prospects for whatever shareholders they have left.

That's the big worry. The best thing about the economy, lately, has been the low unemployment rates. If they start climbing again, we have no way to help the victims of downsizing. All we have is a cruel welfare reform and no national health care system. Maybe this isn't the end of the boom, but if it is we'll find we've done some very stupid things.

We partied but we didn't think clearly. We gutted our social programs, we all moved to the right whether we want to admit it or not, and we've never stopped to think, "what happens when this ends?" Now, if this isn't the end, it should be a wake up call. Ends happen. We need to plan for them and we need society to decide that no one should go without food or housing when it does. We need to loosen, not tighten, welfare requirements, we need to attach health insurance to individual need, not to employers and we need to save social security and Medicare while guaranteeing seniors access to prescription drugs.

Whenever the country gets rich, it gets egotistical. It always gets knocked down a few pegs, too. During the 80s, the country was self-centered and self-important. During the early 90s it started to care again and then another boom came and we went back to the 80s. Wealth corrupts, I guess. I, of course, don't know this from personal experience. Though I will admit to being a decadent sort, as much a part of the problem as anyone in my worst moments.

But I do wish we could get past the stock market numbers game and get to what really matters: people who will be hurt when this ride stops. A country shouldn't be judged by its wealth, but by its generosity.

Michael Maiello has $400 in his 401K stock plan. At least, he thinks he does. It might be $200. It might be $23. It might even be gone.


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