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03.19.00 What's fair to OPEC? by Michael Maiello Whenever OPEC tightens oil supplies and pump prices rise, American pundits and citizens start calling OPEC a cartel, or a bunch of thugs, and we call on politicians to break OPEC's hold on the oil market. Of course, OPEC only has the hold because we've done a bad job finding new oil and developing alternatives. Our corporations were in a bad way over the last few years, with oil around $12 a barrel their earnings were low and they cut spending for exploration and production of new oil. Americans at the pump were lazy; they enjoyed $1 a gallon gas and bought big gas guzzling vehicles. But we never thought about OPEC during those years. Here's what happened: The Asian currency crises really hurt the OPEC countries, because those who were most hit by the Asian crises were developing nations who are, and this is key, more dependent on foreign oil than even the United States. Now, to take Saudi Arabia as an example -- the Saudis need to sell oil at $22 a barrel in order to keep their economy solvent. They were selling at $12 a barrel out of necessity - they didn't want to destroy the emerging markets which were in trouble because OPEC new that a few years down the road, after they got back on their feet, that the emerging markets would be great customers. That is why oil prices are higher now, the growing countries can afford it. They won't be this high forever, OPEC doesn't want to stop the recovery by over-charging for oil. Prices will probably drop to between $23-$25 a barrel by the end of the summer. I'm getting these numbers, by the way, from a man named Charlie Maxwell who is a legendary oil industry analyst currently working at Weeden and Co. in Connecticut. I wrote about this issue for Forbes magazine and all the info here is coming from that article, which was fact checked. I say that only because there's no way I'd have known these numbers without Mr. Maxwell's help, and because you'd have no reason to believe me -- I'm not an oil expert. That's actually a good price. We shouldn't ask that the Saudis not have a solvent economy so that we can have $12 barrel oil. We shouldn't have expected $12 barrel oil forever. But that's the difference between the US and OPEC -- we think short term conditions will last forever while they think in the long term. If you believe what I wrote in the above paragraph, you have to give OPEC credit for great long term and global thinking. How can we react? Well, some congressional Republicans and George W. Bush are calling for a repeal of the .18 cents gas tax imposed by the Feds. That is short term and stupid. That money pays for roads and for environmental protections. But we have a tax surplus, some argue. But we also live with crushing debt, so it's not good to just eliminate taxes. If we wanted to think long term we'd add two cents to the gas tax and use that money for the development of foreign oil alternatives. Because the only way to take OPEC's power away is to stop buying its oil all the time. Well, that was not a new thought. People on both sides of the political divide have been saying it for a long time. We just never do anything about it. Instead we whine when gas prices go up and we celebrate when they're down. Well, the party is over and all of our heads hurt in the morning. But you don't complain about a hangover, you drink a lot of water, take a lot of aspirin and try to rest. What's our hangover cure for the current oil crisis? It won't be a simple or short-term solution. It will have to arise from a change in our national energy policies, and it will entail some sacrifice and change. We can either sacrifice on our own or let OPEC do it for us. But we should never expect OPEC to sell oil so cheaply that their economies are wrecked. That's just stupid, and it's unfair. OPEC isn't evil and they aren't a cartel. They're just a bunch of countries who have gotten together to make sure they're not taken advantage of by the world's more powerful countries. They're more like a labor union that anything else; we should respect them and treat them right.
Michael Maiello moved to New York City last fall and is for the first time living without a car. This is also the first time he hasn't missed his car.
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