Last week, George W. Bush uttered the word his father refused to speak: Recession. Also breaking from previous Bush ideology, he said that recessions are the fault of the president and that Clinton should bend over and take his spanking like a man.

The soon-to-be-ex Prez didn't take this well, saying that as long as consumers didn't believe there was a recession, there wouldn't be one.

In one of those occurrences as rare as an eclipse on Christmas Day, both guys are right.

We will have a recession, if we're not at the start of one right now. A friend of mine (and sometimes LCN columnist) has been fielding phone calls left and right from bankruptcy law firms all year. Say what you might about lawyers; those folks know that more people file for bankruptcy during a recession than during good times. Like most half-witted people out there, they saw this thing coming.

Back in 1980, silly conservatives waved around the Laffer curve, a theorem sketched out on a napkin (I'm not kidding) that showed the American economy was being stifled by excessive taxes on the rich. Professor Laffer discounted the influence of skyrocketing energy prices and interest rates above 20 percent, and the filthy rich crowd convinced Congress to cut taxes while increasing spending levels. That debt we're paying back? More than 3/4 of it arrived during the Reagan and Bush administrations. Blame a goofy economist and the astonishing tensile strength of Howard Johnson napkins.

Those same idiots are the ones claiming that what this country needs is a good dose of "tax relief." Now, I'm not against paying fewer taxes, but what I'd like to do is quit paying for Defense Department boondoggles. Conservatives want to quit paying for "welfare queens," though now that we have "welfare reform," they'd rather quit paying for the education of poor children. We've all got our agendas. But really, no one is collapsing under a heavy tax burden. What we need to do as a nation is continue to pay down the Reagan-Bush debt. A big tax cut won't help.

On the other hand, the Prez is calling for all good people to spend more money in the name of a healthy economy. That, too, is a stupid idea. While we don't need to be as paranoid as the Japanese (where a national "saving spree" has indeed kept their economy moribund for most of the 90s), folks might want to think about simply living within their means. No one needs a BMW. There's no need to spend into a hole to ensure that every child has her or his own bedroom. Some common sense must prevail.

Our new Prez is right: There will be a recession. This is not a good thing. There was a recession on when I got out of college, and the best job I could get was a $14,000-a-year gig designing motorcycle maintenance manuals. The same job at the same company pays more than $25,000 a year today. Let me tell you, I would've been in clover with twenty-five grand a year back in 1992. Some of those college grads expecting massive paychecks right out of school will have to scale back their ambitions.

But college graduates are not the ones who get hurt during a recession. The folks currently earning ten bucks an hour, benefits and paid vacations at Wendy's are the ones who will be hurt. As more people go out of work, the bottom-line jobs will lose a lot of what they had during the heady days of full employment. These folks have recently enjoyed "the good life" for the first time. They have been able to buy houses, cars and generally contribute to the economy. And as their pay is cut and their benefits dropped in the coming months, they will be unable to keep contributing to the economy. They will default on loans, have their homes foreclosed upon and see their cars repossessed. They will turn to the welfare state, but there is very little welfare left to give. They will be pissed off and angry, and very few people in power will hear their cries.

I'm not trying to paint a sob story here. Even most Democratic politicians don't give a rat's ass about the problems of the poor. But you should. Pay attention. If the recession does, indeed, arrive during the next few months, keep an eye on your town. Does it seem like there are more homeless people? Are more and more of your friends out of work for longer and longer periods of time? These might not be illusions. They may, in fact, be very real effects of a contracting economy.

What should we do? What we can. If you've got a friend going through tough times, help her. If a man on the street asks for a quarter for a burger, don't stand and lecture the poor man about the evils of drinking. Give him the damn quarter.

Sometimes the simplest solutions are the best, after all.

Jon Worley's generosity of spirit doesn't necessarily translate into a generosity of pocketbook. But he's trying.