Over the ocean and through the woods
by Jon Worley

During my high school years in the mid-1980s, I read a large number of apocalyptic thrillers. Not the "Jesus is comin' back with a host of angels" type, but the "Lock the door, Marge, the bombs is coming" sort. Oh, some (like Tom Clancy's Red Storm Rising) didn't escalate to large-scale nuclear exchange. And some used a more metaphorical deus ex machina (Kurt Vonnegut's Ice-Nine, for example), but while a teenager I fed on the fear and paranoia of the day, and a whole lot of it involved "mega-rad" doses of radiation.

In any case, the most common excuse for a nuclear war was economic crisis. Whether it was the U.S. running out of oil (I can't begin to tell you how many books I read with that premise) or the implosion of the Soviet economy (which fed the plot of Red Storm Rising and many others), the point was clear: Nations clash due to money matters.

This, of course, has its roots in history. A lot of Germans wouldn't have been so receptive to Hitler if not for the hyperinflation of the early 1920s. That's just one easy example. Most international (and even intranational) conflicts have some economic component, even if it is usually dressed up in jingoistic clothes.

And so I wonder why no one seems to be noticing the troubles in Russia. The ruble has dropped more than 50 percent over the last week (from six to the dollar to 13 to the dollar), almost all of the banks are closed (and insolvent) and the government is just sitting there. Sure, the Russian government has no one to blame but itself, but hell, let's not forget it still has a lot of well-functioning nuclear weapons.

But ask the average American citizen, and they have no clue that anything unusual is happening in the former Soviet Union. My wife is hardly an average person when it comes to news knowledge. Barbara is a newspaper reporter. A couple days ago I asked her what she thought of the Russian difficulties. "There's something wrong?" she asked. This is a person with ready access to the AP wire. She reads four or five newspapers a day, watches TV news and listens to NPR and other radio news when she is driving. She knows news. And she didn't catch a whiff of trouble.

The main reason I noticed is that I remember the Reagan years. Years of fear and paranoia, years of the Evil Empire. Even with that background, though, I hadn't been worrying too much about all those marginal stories about the Russian mob and incompetent financial leadership in Moscow. I figured the market would work itself out, like it does in the U.S.

What a stupid notion. There is no free economic market in Russia. There never has been. And you want to know why the Communists are in charge of Parliament? Because Russians don't know any form of government other than totalitarianism. They expect to be treated badly by the government. From the Tsars to the Premiers to the strong presidency of Boris Yeltsin. The same goes for its economy. Russia has always had a feudal economy. From the Tsarist system of lords and serfs to the Communist system of the Dictatorship of the Proletariat and, um, the Proletariat, to the current system of the very rich and the dirt poor. The titles may change, but most of the people live the same way they always have.

Sure, there's great American TV like Dynasty and Step By Step. One opiate of the masses has replaced another. Other than that, the average Russian hasn't seen a distinct increase in quality of life. Period. And it doesn't matter who takes over if (well, when) Yeltsin calls it quits. The folks in the gutter (the vast majority of the populace) will stay right there. The super-rich have already converted their rubles into dollars, if they ever had any rubles to begin with. They'll do fine in any new system.

The irony is that while the capitalist economy of the United States created a vast middle-class, the communist revolution in Russia ensured that one would never form there. And I don't see how that will change any time soon.

I don't think the bombs will be dropping any time soon, but Russia's financial distress is important. The average American should care. The United States should help. And if any of the bushel-bag of University of Chicago Nobel Prize-winning economists can figure out how to create a Russian middle class, he should be hailed as an international hero. Sure, all this reminds me of the paranoid fantasies of my teenage years, but I would worry less if I thought anyone else cared about what happens in a huge nation far, far away.

Jon Worley plans to rent Dr. Strangelove tonight.

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