The summer movie season starts a little earlier than usual this year. This weekend, in fact, the coast becomes toast. The first big monster big-name star, high-budget "summer movie", Volcano, hits theaters. Of course, it's the second big-name star, high-budget volcano movie, and fifth $80 million-plus budget movie of the year. But all that's irrelevant. The first four movies simply wanted to take up some slack. The big bombers are just now preparing their assault.
Not so long ago, the huge-grossing movies wouldn't show their faces until at least Memorial Day, but last year was the first in a while that the year's biggest didn't arrive until the week reserved for THE blockbuster, July 4th. Of course, since the movie was called Independence Day, it really didn't make sense to bring it out on, say, Flag Day.
Like most moviegoers, I try to hit a majority of the summer blockbusters, if nothing else than for finding a connection with the rest of the American people. I mean, I review albums that sell 500 copies, tops. I haven't read a bestselling novel in years (and the fact that I read books at all probably sets me in a definite minority) and I don't watch much network TV past Cybill and King of the Hill. Movies are my chance to gauge the psyche of America.
I've been watching this summer's trailers for a while, and I'm going to make a few predictions. I'm a firm believer that if the movie execs would study audience reactions to trailers, they would have a great read on how the film will perform. And so, without further ado, my observations. Remember, now, that I am not a professional movie reviewer, and I haven't seen a complete list of all movies coming out this summer. Take my words with a chunk of sea salt.
Still, my first prediction is an easy one. The obvious hit of the summer will be Men In Black. The first trailer for the movie was one of a huge flying saucer plowing into the ground in front of stars Tommy Lee Jones and Will Smith. The thing finally stops, and Tommy and Will proceed to read the aliens their rights. Hilarious.
Last week, before my viewing of Grosse Point Blank (a movie which uses music better than any movie since Pulp Fiction, by the way), I saw the new, expanded trailer, which showed a lot of little green men and delved further into the plot of the film. The audience roar, if anything was louder. MIB had a trailer before each of the Star Wars special edition releases, and every time the theater buzzed after its showing. People are waiting for this puppy. I'd predict at least $200 million, if not $300 million.
Most of the other summer trailers I've seen are also sci-fi, including Starship Troopers, which reportedly has been shelved until the Christmas season (though my source on this, Businessweek, couldn't even get the name of the movie right). That thing looks horrible, though, with Doom-like special effects and lots of bug guts splattering everywhere. People seemed at least amused by the prospect, though, so I'll as high as $100 million.
Con-Air, starring Nick Cage, Steve Buscemi and lots more of your favorite he-men, looks to be your average action movie. Last year, The Rock (with Cage again) had that role, and it made a lot of money. And, to be fair, The Rock was a decent flick. So I figure Con-Air to at least make its money back.
Trouble ahead, though, for The Fifth Element, which is one of those "we haven't finished working on this puppy so our trailer is going to have nothing to do with the movie" flicks. I think Bruce Willis is in it, and that alone spells doom. He hasn't had a really big summer movie in a long time, and I don't think that will change here.
On the other hand, another sure-fire hit looks to be Batman and Robin, with George Clooney and Chris O'Donnell in the title roles. The Arnold is Mr. Freeze, the Uma is Poison Ivy and there are lots of other big-name folks in other roles. Robin even gets a girlfriend, in an apparent attempt to save him from the homosexual poster boy image he solidified in Batman Forever, after years of comic book speculation. Honestly, this movie could really suck (though the trailer is highly amusing) and folks would still flock to it. A major hit.
On the other hand, the latest Christian Slater epic, The Flood, looks like Twister all over again: a weather disaster flick made by people who have never lived in the Midwest. Of course, Twister made a huge amount of cash and certified Helen Hunt as a bona-fide movie star (and I won't complain about that last part). However, I don't think there's that much hope for The Flood.
With all that said, I must admit that summer also means most of the good movies won't make it to the theaters. So it'll be trips to the video store to find all the little films that never made it to Tampa Bay (and certainly not to York, Pa.).
It's not a bad life, really.
For the past two-and-a-half years, Jon Worley has viewed his films in St. Petersburg, Fla. As of Saturday, he will base his cinematic activities in York, Pa.